Hole In One Odds Question?

PaulBoy

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Joined
Nov 18, 2012
HCP
WHS 7.0
Local club/country
Army GC
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Mizuno Pro 223 (4-AW) Modus3 120s
Driver
Titleist TSi2 Graphite Design Tour AD XC-50s
#1
I had a look round & it appears that the odds on having a Hole In One are about 1 in 12,500 (?)
I played with a pal of mine today who had his first ever hole in one and it was on his birthday (!)
Would any mathematicians among us like to work out the odds on that? - Nothing on Google btw
As an aside, I once almost had two holes in one during the same round! - I holed out on the 2nd hole
at Guildford & news spread to the groups ahead - When I played the 7th the group ahead
waited for me to drive (& it was a driver due to wind / winter conditions!) - My driver hit the pin &
finished 6 inches away! - Had it gone in the odds of that are about 1 in 67 million!
Cheers ... Paul
 

Halebopp

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Oct 6, 2012
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10.6
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Lakeside Golf Vammala, Finland
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MP-H5/53/4
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MP-650/ST180
#2
Are the odds for a HIO 1 in 12 500 for a single hole? If that's the case, the odds of making at least one on a course with four par 3s are around 3.2 per 10000, or 1 per 3125 rounds.

How many rounds does your friend get to play on his birthdays? Living in Finland and having been born in December, my personal chances of achieving such feat range from slim to none. Assuming he could play 30 rounds on his birthdays over his lifetime, the chances of making one (or more) would be around 0.96% (assuming four par 3s per round).
 

PaulBoy

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 18, 2012
HCP
WHS 7.0
Local club/country
Army GC
Irons
Mizuno Pro 223 (4-AW) Modus3 120s
Driver
Titleist TSi2 Graphite Design Tour AD XC-50s
#3
I don't really understand either of your questions (sorry) - 12,500:1 is well reported as the odds on achieving a hole in one & I presume it takes into account you are playing an 18 hole course(s) 2 or 3 times a week over multiple years (?) - To then score your hole in one on one possible day in a given year must multiply the odds quite dramatically, into the millions to one I would suggest (?) - I was hoping to find out online that someone had worked out the odds for such a feat, but to date remain unsatisfied ...
 

Halebopp

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 6, 2012
HCP
10.6
Local club/country
Lakeside Golf Vammala, Finland
Irons
MP-H5/53/4
Driver
MP-650/ST180
#4
It seems like the 1 in 12 500 is for making a HIO on any given par 3. So, assuming a course has four par 3s, the odds of making one or more on any given round is one minus the odds of not making any:

1 - (12 499/12 500)^4 = 0.00031996, or 0.032%

Assuming the odds of making a HIO don't change on your birthday (you don't celebrate too heavily on the day), the odds stay the same. After that it's all down to how many birthday rounds you can play over your lifetime.

If you were to play 30 birthday rounds, you're going to play 30*4 = 120 par 3s so the odds of making one or more HIOs during those rounds would be:

1 - (12 499/12 500)^120 = 0.009554, or about 0.96%, not very far off from 1/100 odds.
 
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